Efficacy of Vitamin D Treatment in Mortality Reduction Due to COVID-19.
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 9% for any early termination, 8% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 14% of the time (741 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2021-11-30, after 2020-11-09 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-11-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: vitamindeficiencyhospitalacutedays of
Phrases that lowered it: patients whorespiratoryefficacytabletgroup -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 54.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 5.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
-
Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Minimum age: not given (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Drug's FAERS reports before start: 22457 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- not given (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 0 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- no earlier finished trials (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 1 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 22457 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 1760 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 54.5% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 5.4% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- vitamin d
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- COvid-19 and Vitamin D Supplementation: a Multicenter Randomized Controlled Trial of High Dose Versus Standard Dose Vitamin D3 in High-risk COVID-19 Patients (CoVitTrial) NCT04344041 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 49% of active trials completed
- The Effect of Vitamin D Supplementation on COVID-19 Recovery NCT04883203 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed
- Efficacy of Vitamin D Supplementation to Prevent the Risk of Acquiring COVID-19 in Healthcare Workers NCT04535791 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
- Efficacy of Vitamin D Treatment in Pediatric Patients Hospitalized by COVID-19 NCT04502667 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials completed
- Vitamin D to Improve Outcomes by Leveraging Early Treatment NCT03096314 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.