An Outpatient Study Investigating Non-prescription Treatments for COVID-19
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 7% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (331 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Terminated on 2022-03-31, after 2020-11-15 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “enrollment”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-03-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Design: factorial (lowers risk) · Design
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: onsetsymptomstreatment ofoutcomeshospitalization
Phrases that lowered it: to investigateinvestigate theprescription19consent form -
Minimum age: 20 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
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Number of arms: 8 (lowers risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 8.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 62.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Maximum age: 70 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
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Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 8 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- factorial (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 20 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- 70 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 0 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- no earlier finished trials (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 0 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 4 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 127229 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 16186 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 62.1% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 8.6% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- infectious disease, respiratory
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- chlorine dioxide, famotidine, lactoferrin, zinc
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Treatment of Long CoronaVirus Disease (COVID) (TLC) Feasibility Trial NCT05946551 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 48% of active trials terminated
- COVID-19 Outpatient Pragmatic Platform Study (COPPS) - Master Protocol NCT04662086 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 80% of active trials completed
- Trial of Combination Therapy to Treat COVID-19 Infection NCT04482686 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 22% of active trials completed
- Early Intervention in COVID-19: Favipiravir Verses Standard Care NCT04373733 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 48% of active trials completed
- COVID-19 Outpatient Pragmatic Platform Study (COPPS) - Acebilustat Sub-Protocol NCT04662060 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 81% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.