Dominantly Inherited Alzheimer Network Trial: An Opportunity to Prevent Dementia. A Study of Potential Disease Modifying Treatments in Individuals at Risk for or With a Type of Early Onset Alzheimer's Disease Caused by a Genetic Mutation.

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 16% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (112 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-03-06. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: alzheimerdementiadiseasemricancer
  Phrases that lowered it: productsdrugbodyhistory orbetween 18
• Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 18.8% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 6 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 191 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Maximum age: 80 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Keywords listed: 13 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Dominantly Inherited Alzheimer Network Trial: An Opportunity to Prevent Dementia: A Study of Potential Disease Modifying Treatments in Individuals at Risk for or With a Type of Early Onset Alzheimer's Disease Caused by a Genetic Mutation NCT06424236 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 37% of active trials terminated
• A Study to Assess Safety and Target Engagement of E2814 in Participants With Mild to Moderate Cognitive Impairment Due to Dominantly Inherited Alzheimer's Disease NCT04971733 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 71% of active trials completed
• Study to Assess the Safety and Biological Activity of AMX0035 for the Treatment of Alzheimer's Disease NCT03533257 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 60% of active trials completed
• A Phase II Study to Assess the Safety, Tolerability and Efficacy of Xanamem™ in Subjects With Mild Dementia Due to AD (XanADu) NCT02727699 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 81% of active trials completed
• Study to Assess Safety and Efficacy of PRI-002 in Patients With MCI to Mild Dementia Due to Alzheimer's Disease (AD) NCT06182085 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 38% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.