Chronic Pain Master Protocol (CPMP): A Study of LY3556050 in Participants With Osteoarthritis
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 14% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (103 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2021-10-21, after 2020-11-12 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-10-21. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past trials: 1352 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Minimum age: 40 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 7.0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 170 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: painchronicplacebotreatment ofthe treatment
Phrases that lowered it: kneearthritisparticipantosteoarthritisjoint -
Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Maximum age: not given (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
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Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- double (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 40 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 1352 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 7.0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 170 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- musculoskeletal
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- A Chronic Pain Master Protocol (CPMP): A Study of LY3857210 In Participants With Osteoarthritis Pain NCT05620563 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 37% of active trials completed
- Chronic Pain Master Protocol (CPMP): A Study of LY3526318 in Participants With Osteoarthritis NCT05080660 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 40% of active trials completed
- Chronic Pain Master Protocol (CPMP): A Study of LY3016859 in Participants With Osteoarthritis NCT04456686 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 37% of active trials completed
- A Study in the Treatment of Osteoarthritis Knee Pain NCT00790790 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials completed
- Clinical Trial to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of LEVI-04 in Patients With Osteoarthritis of the Knee NCT05618782 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.