A Study of Ustekinumab in Pediatric Participants With Moderately to Severely Active Ulcerative Colitis (UC)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 12% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 17% of the time (213 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-06-05. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 9.8% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 2.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 63.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 107 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: smallor equalequal toprioractive
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsparticipantpharmacokineticsthe efficacyustekinumab
• Maximum age: 17 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 56436 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 11159 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study to Evaluate the Safety and Efficacy of Ustekinumab Induction and Maintenance Therapy in Participants With Moderately to Severely Active Ulcerative Colitis NCT02407236 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 49% of active trials completed
• A Study of Ustekinumab in Pediatric Participants With Moderately to Severely Active Crohn's Disease NCT04673357 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 43% of active trials completed
• A Pharmacokinetic Study of Ustekinumab in Pediatric Subjects With Moderately to Severely Active Crohn's Disease NCT02968108 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 57% of active trials completed
• A Study of Mirikizumab (LY3074828) in Pediatric Participants With Moderately to Severely or Active Ulcerative Colitis NCT05784246 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials completed
• A Study of Ustekinumab in Pediatric Participants (U-POPS) With Juvenile Psoriatic Arthritis or Psoriasis NCT05252533 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 23% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.