Intravenous Zotatifin in Adults With Mild or Moderate COVID-19

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 25% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 6% of the time (776 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-09-22. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cellheartfailurecarcinomarandomization
  Phrases that lowered it: screeningbodymalethe investigatordrug
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 66.7% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 2 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: 64 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Keywords listed: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study of LAM-002A for the Prevention of Progression of COVID-19 NCT04446377 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 77% of active trials completed
• Clinical Trial to Evaluate the Safety and Efficacy of ATR-002 in Adult Hospitalized Patients With COVID-19 NCT04776044 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 32% of active trials terminated
• Study to Assess the Safety and Pharmacokinetics of WP1122 in Healthy Volunteers NCT05195723 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials completed
• Investigating Otilimab in Patients With Severe Pulmonary COVID-19 Related Disease NCT04376684 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 82% of active trials completed
• A Phase 2 Study of APX-115 in Hospitalized Patients With Confirmed Mild to Moderate COVID-19. NCT04880109 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 48% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.