Comparison of Daprodustat Formulations Produced by Two Methods of Manufacture for Bioequivalence and Dissolution in Healthy Participants

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 3% for any early termination, 0% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 14% of the time (117 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-05-18. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: halflivesdouble blindpriorrandomized double
  Phrases that lowered it: bioequivalencehealthybioavailabilityparticipantsperiod
• Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Design: crossover (lowers risk) · Design
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 2643 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 94 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 6.9% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 11.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 50 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 5 (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 100% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study to Evaluate the Bioequivalence of a Combined Formulated Tablet Compared With Maraviroc and Combivir™ NCT01597648 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials completed
• Healthy Volunteer Study Comparing Tablet and Oral Solution Formulations NCT04814472 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 0% of active trials completed
• A Bioequivalence (BE) Study Comparing The Commericializable And Clinical Formulations Of PF-00299804 NCT01313793 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials completed
• Bioequivalence Study of Bafiertam 190 mg and Vumerity® 462 mg Delayed-Release Capsules in Fasting Healthy Subjects NCT05181215 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 0% of active trials completed
• Bioequivalence Study of Two Products of Apremilast 30 mg Tablets in Healthy, Adult, Human Subjects NCT06084663 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 0% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.