Efficacy and Safety of Inhaled AZD1402 Administered for Four Weeks in Adults With Asthma on Medium-to-High Dose Inhaled Corticosteroids

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 9% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 10% of the time (528 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-07-20. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: priorto screeningmonthsplacebotreatment with
  Phrases that lowered it: asthmaparticipantparticipantsfev1vaccine
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 1655 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 166 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 8.0% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: 75 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study to Investigate the Safety, Tolerability and Effects of AZD8630 in Healthy Subjects and Subjects With Asthma on Inhaled Corticosteroids and Long-acting Beta-agonists NCT05110976 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
• Phase 2a Study to Assess the Efficacy and Safety of AZD4604 in Adult Patients With Moderate-to-Severe Asthma Uncontrolled on Medium-High Dose ICS-LABA NCT06020014 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed
• A Multiple Dosing (14 Days) Study to Assess Efficacy and Safety of Three Dose Levels of AZD7594, Given Once Daily by Inhalation, in Patients With Mild to Moderate Asthma NCT02479412 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
• Tezepelumab Efficacy and Safety in Reducing Oral Corticosteroid Use in Adults With Oral Corticosteroid Dependent Asthma NCT05398263 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials terminated
• A 24-Week Efficacy and Safety Study to Assess Budesonide and Formoterol Fumarate Metered Dose Inhaler in Adult and Adolescent Participants With Inadequately Controlled Asthma (VATHOS) NCT05202262 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.