The Ketamine for Acute Postoperative Analgesia (KAPA) Trial
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 24% for any early termination, 13% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 14% of the time (741 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2023-06-30, after 2020-11-17 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-06-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
-
Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: painbowelmoderate toto severeassociated
Phrases that lowered it: patientseffecttrialchallengehealth -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 11.4% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 96 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 14.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 93.1% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Keywords listed: 6 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Sponsor's past trials: 437 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
-
Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 6 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 75 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 437 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 11.4% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 96 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 6256 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 1301 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 93.1% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 14.9% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- ketamine
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- The Preemptive Analgetic Potency of Low Dose S-Ketamine NCT01022840 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed
- A Comparison of Ketamine Infusion Versus Placebo in Opioid Tolerant and Opioid Naive Patients After Spinal Fusion NCT03274453 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials completed
- Perioperative Ketamine in Opioid-Tolerant Patients Undergoing Lumbar Spine Surgery NCT04220489 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 57% of active trials terminated
- Ketamine Patient-Controlled Analgesia for Acute Pain NCT02062879 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials terminated
- Ketamine Effects as Preemptive Analgesia NCT06040060 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.