LYT-100 in Post-acute COVID-19 Respiratory Disease

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 15% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 8% of the time (780 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-07-18. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: acuteoxygenhoursdiseaseplacebo
  Phrases that lowered it: evaluate theto evaluateopen labelrespiratoryefficacy
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 55.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Collaborators: 2 (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 22.6% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Keywords listed: 10 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 5145 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Safety and Efficacy of Dupilumab for Treatment of Hospitalized COVID-19 Patients NCT04920916 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 78% of active trials completed
• ACTIV-3b: Therapeutics for Severely Ill Inpatients With COVID-19 NCT04843761 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 66% of active trials completed
• Study of Varespladib in Patients Hospitalized With Severe COVID-19 NCT04969991 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 35% of active trials terminated
• Double-blind Study to Evaluate the Safety and Efficacy of Antroquinonol in Mild-Moderate COVID-19 Hospitalized Patients NCT04523181 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 80% of active trials completed
• NasoVAX in Patients With Early Coronavirus Infectious Disease 2019 (COVID-19) NCT04442230 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 65% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.