Safety and Efficacy in Participants With Metastatic BRAF-mutant Melanoma Treated With Encorafenib With and Without Binimetinib in Combination With Nivolumab and Low-dose Ipilimuma

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 27% for any early termination, 10% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (851 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-09-20. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: metastaticcoronarybrainmelanomauncontrolled
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsbowelscreeningdaysadministered
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 26.1% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 4 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 86166 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 14995 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Dose-seeking Study of Pembrolizumab Plus Vemurafenib and Cobimetinib Advanced Melanoma NCT02818023 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 82% of active trials terminated
• Encorafenib + Binimetinib + Pembrolizumab in Patients With Unresectable or Metastatic BRAF V600 Mutant Melanoma NCT02902042 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials completed
• Overcoming Primary Resistance to Immunotherapy in Metastatic Melanoma NCT05304546 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 66% of active trials completed
• Biopsy- and Biology-driven Optimization of Targeted Therapy in Subjects With Advanced Melanoma NCT02410863 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 93% of active trials terminated
• A Phase 1b Study of the Selective HDAC Inhibitor Mocetinostat in Combination With Ipilimumab and Nivolumab in Patients With Unresectable Stage III or Stage IV Melanoma NCT03565406 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 73% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.