A Study of Tirzepatide (LY3298176) in Participants With Type 2 Diabetes Who Have Obesity or Are Overweight
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 8% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 9% of the time (803 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2023-04-10, after 2021-03-29 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-04-10. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: acutepriormultiplemacularcarcinoma
Phrases that lowered it: type diabeteswith typebodyweightkg -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past trials: 1391 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 1.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 7.0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 169 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
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Maximum age: not given (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 86.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- double (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 1
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 1391 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 7.0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 169 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 83 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 36 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 86.7% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 1.2% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- metabolic, endocrine
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- tirzepatide
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- A Study of Tirzepatide (LY3298176) in Participants With Obesity or Overweight NCT04184622 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials completed
- A Study of Tirzepatide (LY3298176) in Participants With Obesity or Overweight for the Maintenance of Weight Loss NCT04660643 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed
- A Study of Tirzepatide (LY3298176) In Participants After A Lifestyle Weight Loss Program NCT04657016 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed
- A Study of Tirzepatide (LY3298176) in Participants With Type 2 Diabetes Not Controlled With Diet and Exercise Alone NCT03954834 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed
- A Study of Tirzepatide (LY3298176) in Chinese Participants Without Type 2 Diabetes Who Have Obesity or Overweight (SURMOUNT-CN) NCT05024032 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 15% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.