Human Challenge With Live-attenuated Rotavirus to Assess Next-generation Rotavirus Vaccines in Africa
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 3% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (1,198 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2023-01-30, after 2021-04-15 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-01-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: statusassess10abilitycombination with
Phrases that lowered it: vaccineparticipantvaccinationhealthyvaccines -
Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Collaborators: 5 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Primary purpose: prevention (lowers risk) · Design
-
Minimum age: 0.12 (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Maximum age: 0.19 (raises risk) · Who can join
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 4 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- prevention (typical: treatment)
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 5 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 1
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 0.12 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- 0.19 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- Yes (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 5 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 3 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Phase I/II Descending Age Study of P2VP8 Subunit Parenteral Rotavirus Vaccine in Healthy Toddlers and Infants NCT02109484 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 1% of active trials completed
- Safety and Immune Response of a Rotavirus Vaccine in HIV-infected and Uninfected Children Born to HIV-infected Mothers NCT00880698 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials completed
- A Clinical Trial to Study the Effect and Safety of Rotavirus Vaccine Against Severe Rotavirus Gastroenteritis in Healthy Indian Infants NCT02133690 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials completed
- The Efficacy of Three Doses of Live Attenuated, Oral Rotavirus Vaccine 116E NCT05958771 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 1% of active trials completed
- Mixed Schedule Study of Live Oral Rotavirus Vaccines and Trivalent P2-VP8 Subunit Rotavirus Vaccine NCT04344054 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.