The Effect of Toothpaste Containing Aloe Vera on Gingivitis
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 4% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (1,198 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2020-11-19, after 2020-03-13 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-11-19. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: typeplaquecontrolledheartdouble
Phrases that lowered it: crossoverperiod20visitparticipants -
Design: crossover (lowers risk) · Design
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 20 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Primary purpose: health services research (lowers risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 55.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 3.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
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Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- crossover (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- health services research (typical: treatment)
- Blinding
- double (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 20 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- 30 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- Yes (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 0 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- no earlier finished trials (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 0 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 2 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 1522 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 109 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 55.2% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 3.0% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- aloe, silica
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Compare the Efficacy of Aloe Vera Mouthwash With Non- Alcoholic Chlorhexidine Mouthwash on Periodontal Diseases NCT02560870 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials completed
- Anti-Inflammatory Efficacy of Ginger Containing Dentifrice in the Control of Biofilm Induced Gingivitis NCT05868200 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials completed
- Local Drug Delivery of Aloe Vera Gel in Chronic Periodontitis NCT02462993 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials completed
- Investigation of Colgate Dual Zinc Toothpaste as Compared to Colgate Cavity Protection Toothpaste in Controlling Plaque and Gingivitis NCT06430060 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials completed
- Clinical Efficacy of the Combined Effect of Oral Irrigator and Chemicals (0.075% CPC) NCT06607172 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.