Study of Efficacy and Safety of Inclisiran in Japanese Participants With High Cardiovascular Risk and Elevated LDL-C

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 17% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 11% of the time (493 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-10-19. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: heartrandomizationplacebo controlledtherapyventricular
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsjapaneseevaluate themmhgto evaluate
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 15.1% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 20 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 1361 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 149 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Trial to Evaluate the Effect of Inclisiran Treatment on Low Density Lipoprotein Cholesterol (LDL-C) in Subjects With Heterozygous Familial Hypercholesterolemia (HeFH) NCT03397121 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 69% of active trials completed
• Inclisiran for Participants With Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease and Elevated Low-density Lipoprotein Cholesterol NCT03399370 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 55% of active trials completed
• Study of Pharmacokinetics, Pharmacodynamics, Safety and Tolerability of Inclisiran in Chinese Participants With Elevated Serum LDL-C NCT04774003 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 39% of active trials completed
• Inclisiran for Subjects With ASCVD or ASCVD-Risk Equivalents and Elevated Low-density Lipoprotein Cholesterol NCT03400800 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 80% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety of Inclisiran as Monotherapy in Chinese Adults With Low or Moderate ASCVD Risk and Elevated Low-density Lipoprotein Cholesterol. NCT05888103 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 21% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.