A Study to Test Whether Different Doses of BI 456906 Help People With Overweight or Obesity to Lose Weight

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 13% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 11% of the time (493 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-10-07. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: participantsrandomizationbipeopleinfection
  Phrases that lowered it: screeningrelevantkgthe studyperiod
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 629 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 7.2% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 91 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 5 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Maximum age: 75 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study to Test Whether Different Doses of BI 456906 Are Effective in Treating Adults With Type 2 Diabetes. NCT04153929 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials completed
• A Study in People With Overweight or Obesity to Test How Well Different Doses of BI 1820237 Are Tolerated When Given Alone or in Combination With Either Semaglutide or BI 456906 NCT05751226 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
• A Study to (1) Compare How BI 456906 is Taken up in the Body of Healthy People and People With Liver Problems and (2) Find Out How People With Overweight and Obesity, With and Without Liver Problems, Tolerate Different Doses of BI 456906 NCT05296733 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 17% of active trials completed
• Saxenda® in Obese or Overweight Patients With Stable Bipolar Disorder (Investigator Initiated) NCT03158805 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 50% of active trials completed
• A Study to Test Whether Survodutide (BI 456906) Helps Chinese People Living With Overweight or Obesity to Lose Weight NCT06214741 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 31% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.