Silmitasertib (CX-4945) in Patients With Severe Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 27% for any early termination, 12% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (331 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Terminated on 2022-10-19, after 2021-01-21 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “enrollment”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-10-19. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: womendefinedadequatecellsnote
Phrases that lowered it: respiratoryevaluatenasalsafety andsymptoms -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 16.6% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 39 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor's past trials: 157 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
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Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 2 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 157 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 16.6% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 39 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- infectious disease, respiratory
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- silmitasertib
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Evaluating Safety, Pharmacokinetics and Clinical Benefit of Silmitasertib (CX-4945) in Subjects With Moderate COVID-19 NCT04663737 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials completed
- A Study of S-892216 in Participants With COVID-19 NCT06928051 · started 2025 · scored riskier than 74% of active trials completed
- Study of Efficacy and Safety of MAS825 in Patients With COVID-19 NCT04382651 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials completed
- A Phase 1b Trial to Evaluate Safety and Effect of SAR443122 on Immune System in Severe COVID-19 NCT04469621 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 22% of active trials completed
- A Study to Compare S-217622 With Placebo in Non-Hospitalized Participants With COVID-19 NCT05305547 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 50% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.