A Phase Ib/III Clinical Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of IBI318 in Combination With Paclitaxel Versus Placebo in Combination With Paclitaxel in Patients With Small Cell Lung Cancer Who Have Failed First-line or Above Chemotherapies

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 14% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (1,938 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-01-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 12.5% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 94.7% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 37 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: lungsmall cellcancerchemotherapypaclitaxel
  Phrases that lowered it: and safetyefficacy andevaluate theto evaluatesafety of
• Maximum age: 75 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 19.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Keywords listed: 0 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 8743 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study of Tislelizumab in Combination With Chemotherapy Versus Chemotherapy in Advanced Lung Cancer NCT03594747 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate the Safety , Tolerability and Efficacy of IBI939 in Combination With Sintilimab in Patients With Advanced Lung Cancer NCT04672356 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 15% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate the Efficacy of IBI939 in Combination With Sintilimab in Patients With Advanced NSCLC NCT04672369 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 15% of active trials completed
• A Study Evaluating the Efficacy and Safety of Tislelizumab Versus Chemotherapy in Advanced Non-Squamous Non-small Cell Lung Cancer NCT03663205 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed
• Study of Platinum Plus Etoposide With or Without Tislelizumab in Participants With Untreated Extensive-Stage Small Cell Lung Cancer NCT04005716 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 49% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.