Vancomycin Tissue Concentrations by Bier Block or Intravenous Administration

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 27% for any early termination, 21% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 6% of the time (340 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-08-17. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cancerto determinedetermine whetherinfectionblock
  Phrases that lowered it: singlehistorytrialdoseconcentrations
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 14.0% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: single (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 1182 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 50996 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 20.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 90.1% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 248 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, infectious disease: Yes (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Regional Prophylactic Vancomycin in Revision Total Knee Replacement NCT02020031 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials completed
• Regional Prophylactic Vancomycin With Restricted Tourniquet Time in Primary Total Knee Replacement NCT03506347 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 82% of active trials completed
• Local Antibiotic Therapy to Reduce Infection After Operative Treatment of Fractures at High Risk of Infection: A Multicenter Randomized, Controlled Trial (VANCO) NCT02227446 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 66% of active trials completed
• Dose Escalation Trial of Intrasite Vancomycin Pharmacokinetics NCT01764750 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 40% of active trials terminated
• Topical Antibiotic Therapy to Reduce Infection After Operative Treatment of Fractures at High Risk of Infection: TOBRA NCT04597008 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 33% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.