Effect of Dalcetrapib in Patients With Confirmed Mild to Moderate COVID-19

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 10% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 8% of the time (780 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-05-17. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: patienthoursorganoxygentherapy
  Phrases that lowered it: mildsafety ofmoderateand safetyefficacy
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 2 (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 100% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 13 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Double-blind Study to Evaluate the Safety and Efficacy of Antroquinonol in Mild-Moderate COVID-19 Hospitalized Patients NCT04523181 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 80% of active trials completed
• Safety, Tolerability, and Treatment Effect of Belnacasan in Patients With COVID-19 NCT05164120 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 78% of active trials completed
• A Phase 2 Study of APX-115 in Hospitalized Patients With Confirmed Mild to Moderate COVID-19. NCT04880109 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 48% of active trials terminated
• Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of TF0023 in Treatments for COVID-19 in Hospitalized Adults NCT05212818 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 24% of active trials terminated
• A Study to Evaluate the Efficacy, Safety, and Concentration of SNS812 in Mild to Moderate COVID-19 Patients NCT05941793 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.