Validation of Patient Reported Outcome Measures in Participants With Nontuberculous Mycobacterial Lung Infection Caused by Mycobacterium Avium Complex

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 11% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 6% of the time (876 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-05-09. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: screeningmonths priorwithin monthsplacebo controlledprior to
  Phrases that lowered it: lungparticipantswomenchemotherapylocally
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: other (lowers risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 11.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 3 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 14939 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 78783 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 16 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 76.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study to Evaluate ALIS (Amikacin Liposome Inhalation Suspension) in Participants With Nontuberculous Mycobacterial Lung Infection Caused by Mycobacterium Avium Complex NCT04677569 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 18% of active trials completed
• Trial of Inhaled Molgramostim in Cystic Fibrosis Subjects With Nontuberculous Mycobacterial Infection NCT03597347 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 56% of active trials terminated
• Study of Epetraborole in Patients With Treatment-refractory MAC Lung Disease NCT05327803 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 83% of active trials terminated
• Pilot Trial of Inhaled Molgramostim in Non-tuberculous Mycobacterial (NTM) Infection NCT03421743 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 62% of active trials completed
• ICoN-1 Phase 3 Study of the Efficacy and Safety of Treatment With MNKD-101, Clofazimine Inhalation Suspension NCT06418711 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 65% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.