Study in Adults of AZD1222 and rAd26-S Administered as Heterologous Prime-Boost Regimen for the Prevention of COVID-19

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 3% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 12% of the time (118 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-03-29. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: diseasecancercarcinomacellsitu
  Phrases that lowered it: vaccineparticipantvaccinationhealthyimmunogenicity
• Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 11.9% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: prevention (lowers risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 130 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Blinding: single (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 98.6% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 5 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 3.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Safety and Immunogenicity Study in Adults of AZD1222 and rAd26-S Administered as Heterologous Prime Boost Regimen for the Prevention of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) NCT04760730 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
• Phase II/III Study of AZD2816, for the Prevention of COVID-19 in Adults NCT04973449 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate the Safety and Immunogenicity of Booster With AZD1222, mRNA-1273, or MVC-COV1901 Against COVID-19 NCT05197153 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials completed
• Immunogenicity and Safety Study of Recombinant Two-Component COVID-19 Vaccine (CHO Cell)(ReCOV) NCT05323435 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 1% of active trials completed
• Open-label, Non-randomized, Non-comparative, Phase II Study of Safety and Immunogenicity of Combination of AZD1222 and rAd26-S for COVID-19 Prevention NCT04686773 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.