CYstic Fibrosis bacterioPHage Study at Yale (CYPHY)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 17% for any early termination, 6% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 7% of the time (96 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-06-22. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 12.3% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 721 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: placebodefinedto screeningtransplantsubject
  Phrases that lowered it: fev1weekssubjects whocystic fibrosisanother clinical
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 140 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Nebulized Bacteriophage Therapy in Cystic Fibrosis Patients With Chronic Pseudomonas Aeruginosa Pulmonary Infection NCT05010577 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 60% of active trials completed
• Ph 1/2 Study Evaluating Safety and Tolerability of Inhaled AP-PA02 in Subjects With Chronic Pseudomonas Aeruginosa Lung Infections and Cystic Fibrosis NCT04596319 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 46% of active trials completed
• A Phase 1b/2 Trial of the Safety and Microbiological Activity of Bacteriophage Therapy in Cystic Fibrosis Subjects Colonized With Pseudomonas Aeruginosa NCT05453578 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 41% of active trials completed
• Study to Evaluate the Safety, Phage Kinetics, and Efficacy of Inhaled AP-PA02 in Subjects With Non-Cystic Fibrosis Bronchiectasis and Chronic Pulmonary Pseudomonas Aeruginosa Infection NCT05616221 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 28% of active trials completed
• Efficacy Study of IgY (Antibody Against Pseudomonas) in Cystic Fibrosis Patients NCT01455675 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.