Safety, Tolerability and Efficacy of Nefopam Cream in Burn Patients

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 15% for any early termination, 8% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (1,198 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2026-02-17. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Sponsor's past termination rate: 13.7% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: prevention (lowers risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: placeboinjurysubjects withdialysischronic
  Phrases that lowered it: creamhealthydermatitisevaluatehiv
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 90 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 12.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 99.7% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 329 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 514 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Dose Ranging Study to Evaluate the Safety and Tolerability of SCX-001 Cream in Healthy Volunteers With Induced Dermal Incisions NCT03036306 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of NexoBrid in Subjects With Thermal Burns NCT02148705 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 27% of active trials completed
• Study of ST266 in Diabetic Subjects With Deep Burns Managed With Skin Grafts NCT01715012 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials terminated
• A Trial to Assess the Safety and Efficacy of Topical Salbutamol in Healthy Volunteers. NCT03514615 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate the Safety and the Efficacy of EscharEx (EX-02 Formulation) in Debridement of Venous Leg Ulcers NCT03588130 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 32% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.