Duvelisib in Combination With Nivolumab in Patients With Advanced Unresectable Melanoma
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 32% for any early termination, 16% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 18% of the time (283 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Terminated on 2025-02-01, after 2021-10-06 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “other”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-02-01. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: patientstypelungobstructivechronic
Phrases that lowered it: trial isdosemgscreeningsubjects -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 33.3% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 27.9% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
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Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Collaborators: 2 (lowers risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 11800 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
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Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
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Drug's FAERS reports before start: 70068 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1/2 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 2 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 1
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 3 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 33.3% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 0 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 3 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 70068 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 11800 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 86.6% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 27.9% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- axitinib, duvelisib, nivolumab
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Binimetinib and Nivolumab for the Treatment of Locally Advanced Unresectable or Metastatic BRAF V600 Wildtype Melanoma NCT04375527 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials terminated
- Pevonedistat and Pembrolizumab for the Treatment of dMMR/MSI-H Metastatic or Locally Advanced Unresectable Solid Tumor NCT04800627 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 83% of active trials terminated
- A Study of Tivozanib in Combination With Durvalumab in Subjects With Advanced Hepatocellular Carcinoma NCT03970616 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 93% of active trials terminated
- Ribociclib + PDR001 in Breast Cancer and Ovarian Cancer NCT03294694 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 68% of active trials terminated
- Ulixertinib (BVD-523) and Hydroxychloroquine in Patients W Advanced MAPK-Mutated Gastrointestinal Adenocarcinomas NCT04145297 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 93% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.