A Phase 3 Study of UGN-102 for Low-Grade Intermediate-Risk Non-Muscle Invasive Bladder Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 16% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (927 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-03-17. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cellscancertumor000invasive
  Phrases that lowered it: and safetyparticipantssafety ofefficacy andthe investigator
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 12.5% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 15.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Keywords listed: 8 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Phase 2b Study of UGN-102 for Low Grade Intermediate Risk Non-Muscle-Invasive Bladder Cancer NCT03558503 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 78% of active trials completed
• Feasibility of Home Instillation of UGN-102 for Treatment of Low-Grade (LG) Non-Muscle Invasive Bladder Cancer (NMIBC) NCT05136898 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 50% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety Evaluation of EN3348 (Mycobacterial Cell Wall-DNA Complex [MCC]) as Compared With Mitomycin C in the Intravesical Treatment of Subjects With BCG Recurrent/Refractory Non-muscle Invasive Bladder Cancer NCT01200992 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 95% of active trials terminated
• A Study of Intravesical Qapzola (Apaziquone) as a Surgical Adjuvant in Participants Undergoing Transurethral Resection of Bladder Tumor (TURBT) NCT03224182 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 85% of active trials terminated
• A Study Comparing the Efficacy and Safety of Nivolumab in Combination With Bacillus Calmette-Guerin (BCG) Versus BCG Alone in Participants With High-Risk Non-Muscle Invasive Bladder Cancer (HR NMIBC) NCT04149574 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 64% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.