Comparative Study Between Valproate and Memantine in the Prophylactic Management of Episodic Migraine.
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 9% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 17% of the time (276 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2020-01-15, after 2019-02-15 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-01-15. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: coronarymemantineto assesstreatment ofmen
Phrases that lowered it: participantstrialconductedthe efficacycompare -
Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
-
Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
-
Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 13.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
-
Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Blinding: single (lowers risk) · Design
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 3 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 89.8% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Sponsor's past trials: 12 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- single (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- not given (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 7 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 65 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 12 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 3 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 3 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 53338 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 8136 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 89.8% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 13.6% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- neurology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- memantine, valproate, valproic acid
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Valproate Versus Topiramate in Migraine NCT06248931 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed
- Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of Erenumab (AMG 334) in Migraine Prevention NCT01952574 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed
- Study With Amitriptylin to Evaluate the Efficacy of Melatonin in Treatment of Migraine NCT01357031 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 19% of active trials completed
- Comparative Study of Oral Atogepant Versus Oral Topiramate to Assess Adverse Events in Adult Participants With Migraine NCT05748483 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed
- Study of the Safety and Effectiveness of NXN-188 for the Treatment of Migraine Headache Without Aura NCT00959751 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 24% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.