Prophylaxis Covid-19 in Healthcare Agents by Intensive Treatment With Ivermectin and Iota-carrageenan
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 5% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 0% of the time (33 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2020-12-31, after 2020-10-15 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-12-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: diseasewomennegativeintensivesubject
Phrases that lowered it: participantsnasaleffect ofevaluate theto evaluate -
Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Primary purpose: prevention (lowers risk) · Design
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 61.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 8.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Maximum age: 60 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Drug's FAERS reports before start: 3421 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1/2 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- prevention (typical: treatment)
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 4 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 60 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- Yes (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- government (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 0 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- no earlier finished trials (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 0 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 2 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 3421 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 393 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 61.3% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 8.9% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- infectious disease, respiratory
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- carrageenan, ivermectin
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Prophylaxis for COVID-19: Ivermectin in Close Contacts of COVID-19 Cases (IVERNEX-TUC) NCT04894721 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
- Effectiveness of Ivermectin as add-on Therapy in COVID-19 Management NCT04343092 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed
- Efficacy of Ivermectin in COVID-19 NCT05076253 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 21% of active trials completed
- A Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of Ivermectin in COVID-19 Prevention NCT05305560 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials completed
- Ivermectin for Post Exposure Prophylaxis of Covid-19 NCT05231603 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 13% of active trials terminated
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.