Study Evaluating the Efficacy and Safety of Dose Conversion From a Long-acting Erythropoiesis-stimulating Agent (Mircera®) to Three Times Weekly Oral Vadadustat for the Maintenance Treatment of Anemia in Hemodialysis Subjects

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 16% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 9% of the time (181 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-01-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: screeningsubjectsinclusiveprior tobaseline
  Phrases that lowered it: participantstimesreceivedcellstage
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 3.6% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 2 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 97.7% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 20% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Trial Evaluating the Efficacy and Safety of Oral Vadadustat Once Daily (QD) and Three Times Weekly (TIW) for the Maintenance Treatment of Anemia in Hemodialysis Subjects Converting From Erythropoiesis-Stimulating Agents (ESAs) NCT04313153 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 60% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety Study to Evaluate Vadadustat for the Correction or Maintenance Treatment of Anemia in Participants With Incident Dialysis-dependent Chronic Kidney Disease (DD-CKD) NCT02865850 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 68% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety Study to Evaluate Vadadustat for the Maintenance Treatment of Anemia in Participants With Dialysis-dependent Chronic Kidney Disease (DD-CKD) NCT02892149 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 69% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety Study to Evaluate Vadadustat for the Maintenance Treatment of Anemia in Participants With Non-dialysis-dependent Chronic Kidney Disease (NDD-CKD) NCT02680574 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 70% of active trials completed
• To Evaluate the Efficacy of Three Times Weekly (TIW) Vadadustat Compared to Standard of Care ESA in Patients With Anemia of CKD Receiving In-Center Hemodialysis NCT06901505 · started 2025 · scored riskier than 33% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.