Phase III RCT of Radiotherapy Plus Toripalimab Versus Sorafenib in Advanced Hepatocellular Carcinoma With PVTT
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 14% for any early termination, 7% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 14% of the time (741 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Terminated on 2025-02-05, after 2021-03-02 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “other”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-02-05. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: transplantationcarcinomatumorleftcardiac
Phrases that lowered it: patientsthe upperdiseasesthe efficacyaccording -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 25.1% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 18 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Maximum age: 80 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor's past trials: 4 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 88.5% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
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Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports before start: 18573 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 3 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 80 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 4 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 18 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 2 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 18573 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 790 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 88.5% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 25.1% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- sorafenib, toripalimab
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Perioperative Therapy for Hepatocellular Carcinoma NCT04653389 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 47% of active trials terminated
- Evaluate the Safety and Efficacy of Toripalimab Combined With Bevacizumab Versus Sorafenib Therapy for HCC NCT04723004 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 36% of active trials completed
- Study of Chiauranib in Patients With Advanced Hepatocellular Carcinoma NCT03245190 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 60% of active trials completed
- Combination of PD-1 and VEGFR-2 Blockade for Advanced Hepatocellular Carcinoma NCT04393220 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 61% of active trials completed
- The Safety and Efficacy of Transarterial Chemoembolization (TACE) + Lenvatinib + Programmed Cell Death Protein 1 (PD-1) Antibody of Advanced Unresectable Hepatocellular Carcinoma NCT04997850 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 48% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.