Phase III Study of AZD7442 for Treatment of COVID-19 in Outpatient Adults
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 15% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 6% of the time (876 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2022-10-19, after 2021-01-28 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-10-19. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past trials: 1653 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: administrationassesswomenhoursmild to
Phrases that lowered it: participantparticipantsnasaladultsdetermined by -
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 8.0% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 156 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 100% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Disease area, infectious disease: Yes (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Maximum age: not given (lowers risk) · Who can join
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- triple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 1
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 1653 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 8.0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 156 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 2 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 2 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 2 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 100% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 0% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- infectious disease, respiratory
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- cilgavimab, tixagevimab
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Phase III Double-blind, Placebo-controlled Study of AZD7442 for Pre-exposure Prophylaxis of COVID-19 in Adult. NCT04625725 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
- AZD7442 Pharmacokinetics, Pharmacodynamics, and Safety Evaluation in Pediatrics NCT05281601 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 41% of active trials completed
- Trial of Treatments for COVID-19 in Hospitalized Adults NCT04315948 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 22% of active trials completed
- Phase III Double-blind, Placebo-controlled Study of AZD7442 for Post- Exposure Prophylaxis of COVID-19 in Adults NCT04625972 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials completed
- Adaptive COVID-19 Treatment Trial (ACTT) NCT04280705 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 42% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.