Spironolactone in the Treatment of Heart Failure

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 24% for any early termination, 8% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 20% of the time (381 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-10-01. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: heartfailurerandomizationacutedisease
  Phrases that lowered it: the trialpatientsand safetyscreeningefficacy and
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 7 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 10.8% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 100 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 41 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 15.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 50 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 10978 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 204 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 69379 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Keywords listed: 6 (lowers risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study to Evaluate the Efficacy (Effect on Disease) and Safety of Finerenone in Participants With Heart Failure and Left Ventricular Ejection Fraction (Proportion of Blood Expelled Per Heart Stroke) Greater or Equal to 40% NCT04435626 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 56% of active trials completed
• Changes in NT-proBNP, Safety, and Tolerability in HFpEF Patients With a WHF Event (HFpEF Decompensation) Who Have Been Stabilized and Initiated at the Time of or Within 30 Days Post-decompensation (PARAGLIDE-HF) NCT03988634 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 84% of active trials completed
• Comparison of Eplerenone Versus Spironolactone in Heart Failure Patients With Glucose Intolerance or Type 2 Diabetes NCT01586442 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 64% of active trials completed
• Study to Investigate the Effects of Vitamin D Administration on Plasma Renin Activity in Patients With Stable Chronic Heart Failure NCT01092130 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 46% of active trials completed
• A Study of MK-7145 in Participants With Renal Insufficiency (Part I) and Heart Failure With Renal Insufficiency (Part II) (MK-7145-011) NCT01558674 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 18% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.