Neoadjuvant Bintrafusp Alfa in Patients With Resectable Biliary Tract Cancer
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 26% for any early termination, 12% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Terminated on 2022-01-05, after 2021-07-08 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “enrollment”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-01-05. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: cancercellsmetastatictherapywomen
Phrases that lowered it: participantpsoriasisinvestigateparticipantsasthma -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 39.1% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 33.3% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 100% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
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Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
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Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 23 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 39.1% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 1 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 3 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 3 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 100% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 33.3% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, digestive
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- bintrafusp alfa
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Study of the Efficacy and Safety of the Bintrafusp Alfa in Previously Treated Advanced Malignant Pleural Mesothelioma NCT05005429 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 43% of active trials completed
- Immunotherapy With Durva and Treme With or Without Capecitabine in Adjuvant Treatment for Biliary Tract Cancer NCT05239169 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 84% of active trials completed
- Nal-IRI With 5-fluorouracil (5-FU) and Leucovorin or Gemcitabine Plus Cisplatin in Advanced Biliary-tract Cancer NCT03044587 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 82% of active trials completed
- A Study to Evaluate Abemaciclib in Advanced Biliary Tract Carcinoma NCT04003896 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 87% of active trials terminated
- Evaluation of Bintrafusp Alfa in Operable and Untreated Head and Neck Squamous Cell Carcinoma NCT04428047 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 84% of active trials terminated
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.