Efficacy and Safety Study of a New Therapeutic Strategy in the Treatment of Extended-Disease Small-Cell Lung Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 22% for any early termination, 8% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-06-19. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cellradiationcancerbevacizumabdisease
  Phrases that lowered it: combinationaccordinghas historydosedrug
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 3 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 2 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 23.2% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 185994 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 4 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 25904 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Carboplatin Plus Pemetrexed Plus Atezolizumab Plus Bevacizumab in Chemotherapy and Immunotherapy-naïve Patients With Stage IV Non-squamous Non-small Cell Lung Cancer NCT03713944 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 92% of active trials terminated
• Platinum Chemotherapy Plus Paclitaxel With Bevacizumab and Atezolizumab in Metastatic Carcinoma of the Cervix NCT03556839 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 52% of active trials completed
• First Line Atezolizumab, Paclitaxel, and Bevacizumab (Avastin®) in mTNBC NCT04408118 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 77% of active trials completed
• Vorolanib + Atezolizumab as Maintenance Therapy for Extensive-Stage Small Cell Lung Cancer NCT04373369 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 89% of active trials terminated
• Atezolizumab Plus Bevacizumab in First Line NSCLC Patients NCT03836066 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 86% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.