Guselkumab (Anti-IL 23 Monoclonal Antibody) for Alcohol Associated Liver Disease
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 17% for any early termination, 7% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 15% of the time (81 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2024-03-31, after 2021-03-03 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-03-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: cancerpatientliverfailureacute
Phrases that lowered it: alcoholeffectthe investigatorhistory orphysical -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 21 (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 10.3% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 30.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 67 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 1.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past trials: 351 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- non randomized (typical: randomized)
- Design
- sequential (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 21 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 351 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 10.3% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 67 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 5960 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 2263 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 30.7% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 1.6% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- digestive
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- guselkumab
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Use of F-652 in Patients With Alcoholic Hepatitis NCT02655510 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 77% of active trials completed
- DUR-928 in Patients With Alcoholic Hepatitis NCT03917407 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials completed
- Elbasvir/Grazoprevir Fixed-Dose Combination for 8 Weeks in G1b Treatment-Naïve, HCV-Infected Patients NCT03496233 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 20% of active trials completed
- Evaluation of the Safety and Pharmacology of EYP001 in HBV Subjects NCT03272009 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials completed
- CM-101 in NASH Patients - The SPLASH Study NCT05824156 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 88% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.