Efficacy of Ticagrelor Plus Aspirin in Mild Non-cardioembolic Ischemic Stroke
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 11% for any early termination, 6% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 20% of the time (381 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2023-10-15, after 2021-08-08 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-10-15. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
-
Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: brainischemicstrokeactivemri
Phrases that lowered it: mildthe efficacyhistorythe aimblind -
Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Minimum age: 40 (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Primary purpose: prevention (lowers risk) · Design
-
Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 11.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
-
Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
-
Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
-
Blinding: single (lowers risk) · Design
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 5 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
-
Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- prevention (typical: treatment)
- Blinding
- single (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 7 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 40 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- Yes (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 5 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 5 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 2 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 86160 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 9918 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 84.1% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 11.1% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cardiovascular, neurology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- clopidogrel, ticagrelor
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Ticagrelor Versus Clopidogrel in Ischemic Stroke NCT05553613 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials completed
- Ticagrelor With Aspirin Dual Antiplatelet Therapy Combined With Intravenous Thrombolysis for Ischemic Stroke NCT06316570 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 38% of active trials completed
- Ticagrelor Versus Clopidogrel in Large Vessel Ischemic Stroke NCT06120725 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed
- Clopidogrel Versus Cilostazol in Large-vessel Ischemic Stroke NCT06242145 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 15% of active trials completed
- [SOCRATES -Acute Stroke Or Transient IsChaemic Attack TReated With Aspirin or Ticagrelor and Patient OutcomES] NCT01994720 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 38% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.