Efficacy and Safety of UC-MSCs for the Treatment of Steroid-resistant aGVHD Following Allo-HSCT

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 11% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 19% of the time (67 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-05-02. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 6.5% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 43 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 99.1% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: stemcellscelltransplantationallogeneic
  Phrases that lowered it: and safetyefficacy andsafety ofopen labelto investigate
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 22.0% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 70 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 6960 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• UCMSCs as Front-line Approach of Treatment for Patients With aGVHD NCT03847844 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 69% of active trials completed
• Evaluation of Umbilical Cord-Derived Wharton's Jelly Stem Cells for the Treatment of Acute Graft Versus Host Disease NCT03158896 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 76% of active trials completed
• Allogenic Bone Marrow Mesenchymal Stem Cells Infusion in Patients With Steroid-refractory GVHD NCT02824653 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 30% of active trials completed
• Safety and Efficacy Study of Umbilical Cord Blood-Drived Mesenchymal Stem Cells to Promote Engraftment of Unrelated Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplantation NCT00823316 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 66% of active trials completed
• Safety and Tolerability of HSC835 in Patients With Hematological Malignancies Undergoing Single Umbilical Cord Blood Transplant NCT01930162 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 96% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.