Treating Negative Affect in Low Back Pain Patients
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 20% for any early termination, 10% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 14% of the time (453 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2024-12-20, after 2021-03-31 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-12-20. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 100% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: painopioidnegativeopioidssurgery
Phrases that lowered it: tobaccoprescriptionmildparticipantsvisit -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Collaborators: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 66.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 8.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past trials: 1 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Number of arms: 5 (lowers risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
-
Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Drug's FAERS reports before start: 767928 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 5 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- sequential (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- double (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 4 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 8 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 75 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 1 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 100% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 1 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 7 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 767928 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 73433 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 66.8% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 8.7% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- neurology, psychiatry, musculoskeletal
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- aripiprazole, bupropion, duloxetine, escitalopram, mirtazapine, sertraline, venlafaxine
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Chronic Pain Master Protocol (CPMP): A Study of LY3016859 in Participants With Chronic Low Back Pain NCT04529096 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 42% of active trials completed
- Chronic Pain Master Protocol (CPMP): A Study of LY3556050 in Participants With Chronic Low Back Pain NCT04874636 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 42% of active trials completed
- A Chronic Pain Master Protocol (CPMP): A Study of LY3857210 in Participants With Chronic Low Back Pain NCT05630196 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 67% of active trials completed
- Chronic Pain Master Protocol (CPMP): A Study of LY3526318 in Participants With Chronic Low Back Pain NCT05086289 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 68% of active trials completed
- Genetic Variants Associated With Low Back Pain and Their Response to Treatment With Duloxetine or Propranolol NCT03364075 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 32% of active trials terminated
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.