Antiviral Efficacy and Acceptability of Mouth Rinses for Inactivation of COVID-19
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 10% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (331 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Terminated on 2021-04-07, after 2021-03-26 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “business”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-04-07. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: hourssyndromepregnancypatientswomen
Phrases that lowered it: subjectvisitsubjectshistoryrespiratory -
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 8.7% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
-
Sponsor's past trials: 633 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 106 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 11.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Number of arms: 5 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
-
Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports before start: 4297 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 5 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- triple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 2 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 65 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- Yes (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 633 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 8.7% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 106 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 2 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 4297 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 857 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 83.4% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 11.0% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- infectious disease, respiratory
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- chlorhexidine, hydrogen peroxide
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Mouth Rinses for Inactivation of COVID-19 NCT04584684 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials terminated
- Povidone-Iodine Oral Rinse Study NCT05239598 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 53% of active trials completed
- Antiseptic Mouthwash / Pre-Procedural Rinse on SARS-CoV-2 Load (COVID-19) NCT04409873 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 26% of active trials terminated
- Phase 2, Safety & Microbiology Study of C16G2 in Multiple Oral Gel &/or Mouth Rinse Doses to Healthy Adults NCT02044081 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed
- A Safety and Efficacy Study of 552-02 in Subjects With Dry Mouth Associated With Sjogren's Syndrome NCT00852839 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.