Impact of Colchicine and Low-dose Naltrexone on COVID-19
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 21% for any early termination, 12% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (331 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2021-12-12, after 2021-01-25 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-12-12. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
-
Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: therapypatientrequiringacutechronic
Phrases that lowered it: 19screeningtocilizumabclinicalinfluenza -
Design: factorial (lowers risk) · Design
-
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 49.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 10.3% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 7.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports before start: 41613 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 6884 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
-
Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
-
Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 4 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- factorial (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 68 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 10.3% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 14 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 2 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 41613 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 6884 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 49.1% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 7.6% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- infectious disease, respiratory
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- colchicine, naltrexone
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- COlchicine in Moderate-severe Hospitalized Patients Before ARDS to Treat COVID-19 NCT04363437 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 83% of active trials terminated
- Safety and Tolerability of Emricasan in Symptomatic Outpatients Diagnosed With Mild-COVID-19 NCT04803227 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 69% of active trials terminated
- Fostamatinib for Hospitalized Adults With COVID-19 NCT04579393 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 65% of active trials completed
- Anti-Coronavirus Therapies to Prevent Progression of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Trial NCT04324463 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 60% of active trials completed
- Multi-site Adaptive Trials for COVID-19 NCT04370262 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 95% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.