Study of Recombinant Protein Vaccines With Adjuvant as a Primary Series and as a Booster Dose Against COVID-19 in Adults 18 Years of Age and Older

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 3% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (47 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-06-29. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: enrollmentinterventionprimaryiiapproved
  Phrases that lowered it: vaccinevaccinationparticipantreceiptimmunogenicity
• Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 2.7% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: prevention (lowers risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 12 (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 28 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 260 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Phase: 2/3 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, infectious disease: Yes (lowers risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study of Monovalent and Bivalent Recombinant Protein Vaccines Against COVID-19 in Adults 18 Years of Age and Older NCT04904549 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 1% of active trials terminated
• Immunogenicity and Safety Study of Heterologous Booster Vaccination of a SARS-CoV-2 Recombinant Protein Nanoparticle Vaccine(GBP510) Adjuvanted with AS03 in Adults Aged 18 Years and Older NCT05501522 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 1% of active trials completed
• ARVAC-A New Recombinant Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Vaccine NCT05752201 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials completed
• COVID-19 Variant Immunologic Landscape Trial (COVAIL Trial) NCT05289037 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials completed
• A Controlled Phase 2/3 Study of Adjuvanted Recombinant SARS-CoV-2 Trimeric S-protein Vaccine (SCB-2019) for the Prevention of COVID-19 NCT04672395 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 1% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.