Efficacy and Safety of Clesrovimab (MK-1654) in Infants (MK-1654-004)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 5% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (47 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-07-09. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: termadministration orphasemonoclonalprimary
  Phrases that lowered it: healthyevaluate theto evaluatevaccineand safety
• Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 17.0% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: prevention (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 1320 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 122 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Phase: 2/3 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Safety, Tolerability, and Pharmacokinetics of Clesrovimab (MK-1654) in Infants (MK-1654-002) NCT03524118 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed
• Clesrovimab (MK-1654) in Infants and Children at Increased Risk for Severe Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) Disease (MK-1654-007) NCT04938830 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 55% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate the Safety and Efficacy of MEDI8897 for the Prevention of Medically Attended RSV LRTI in Healthy Preterm Infants. NCT02878330 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed
• Study of a Single Intramuscular Dose of Nirsevimab in the Prevention of Hospitalizations Due to Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) Infection in Healthy Term and Preterm Infants During the First Year of Life NCT05437510 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate the Safety and Efficacy of MEDI8897 for the Prevention of Medically Attended Lower Respiratory Tract Infection Due to Respiratory Syncytial Virus in Healthy Late Preterm and Term Infants (MELODY) NCT03979313 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.