A Multicenter Trial to Evaluate the Efficacy, Safety, Tolerability and Pharmacokinetics of HZN-825 in Patients With Diffuse Cutaneous Systemic Sclerosis
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 25% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 6% of the time (240 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Terminated on 2025-02-24, after 2021-11-05 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “efficacy”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-02-24. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: subjecthepatitishcvor equalequal to
Phrases that lowered it: participantsthe trialvisitdiseasesuln -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 12.0% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past trials: 610 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 71 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- triple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 1
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 75 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 610 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 12.0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 71 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- dermatology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Proof of Mechanism Study of GSK2330811 in Diffuse Cutaneous Systemic Sclerosis NCT03041025 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 68% of active trials completed
- Effectiveness and Safety of SAR156597 in Treating Diffuse Systemic Sclerosis NCT02921971 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 85% of active trials completed
- Study to Evaluate Efficacy, Safety, and Tolerability of MT-7117 in Subjects With Diffuse Cutaneous Systemic Sclerosis NCT04440592 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 91% of active trials completed
- Evaluation of Tofacitinib in Early Diffuse Cutaneous Systemic Sclerosis (dcSSc) NCT03274076 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 83% of active trials completed
- Effects of FT011 in Systemic Sclerosis NCT04647890 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 72% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.