Safety and Immunogenicity of the Sing2016 M2SR H3N2 Monovalent Influenza Vaccine in Adults Ages 50 to 85 Years Old
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 2% for any early termination, 0% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 6% of the time (776 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2021-11-30, after 2021-06-30 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-11-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: time ofat timeacutescalemental
Phrases that lowered it: vaccineinfluenzavaccinationhealthyreceipt -
Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
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Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Minimum age: 50 (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Design: sequential (lowers risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 4 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- sequential (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- basic science (typical: treatment)
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- not given (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 50 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- 85 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- Yes (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 4 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 1 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- infectious disease, respiratory
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Safety and Immunogenicity of the Bris10 M2SR and Sing2016 M2SR H3N2 Monovalent Influenza Vaccines NCT03999554 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 1% of active trials completed
- Assess the Safety and Immunogenicity of One or Two Doses of Sing2016 M2SR H3N2 Influenza Vaccine NCT04960397 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 1% of active trials terminated
- Safety and Immunogenicity Study of H3N2 M2SR Monovalent Influenza Vaccine in Healthy Volunteers NCT02822105 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 1% of active trials completed
- Immunogenicity, Tolerability and Safety of One or Two Doses of an Adjuvanted Swine-origin A H1N1 Influenza Vaccine in Healthy Subjects 18 or More Years of Age Both Vaccinated and Not Yet Vaccinated Against Seasonal Influenza 2009/10 NCT00992212 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 0% of active trials completed
- Safety and Immunogenicity of Different Formulations of Monovalent Influenza A/Astrakhan/3212/2020 Like (H5N8) Virus Vaccine With AS03 Adjuvant System in Medically Stable Adults NCT05975840 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.