Open Label Randomized Multicenter to Assess Efficacy & Tolerability of Ofatumumab 20mg vs. First Line DMT in RMS

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 19% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 15% of the time (734 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-11-04. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: patientcardiaclinepatientsgreater than
  Phrases that lowered it: participantthe investigatormaleparticipantsrange
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 14.9% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 44.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 1395 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 143 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 3.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 381542 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Blinding: single (lowers risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 55 (raises risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Ofatumumab Dose-finding in Relapsing Remitting Multiple Sclerosis (RRMS) Patients NCT00640328 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 43% of active trials completed
• Ofatumumab Subcutaneous Administration in Subjects With Relapsing-Remitting Multiple Sclerosis NCT01457924 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 52% of active trials completed
• Safety, Pharmacokinetics and Pharmacodynamics Study With 2B3-201 in Healthy Subjects and Multiple Sclerosis(MS) Patients NCT02048358 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials terminated
• Study to Assess Whether GSK239512 Can Remyelinate Lesions in Subjects With Relapsing Remitting Multiple Sclerosis NCT01772199 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 82% of active trials completed
• A First Time in Human Study Exploring Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics (PK) and Pharmacodynamics (PD) of GSK2618960 in Healthy Volunteers and Patients With Relapsing Remitting Multiple Sclerosis (RRMS) NCT01808482 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.