Assessing Clinical Outcomes in Alzheimer's Disease Agitation

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 18% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 15% of the time (734 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-11-21. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: alzheimeraddementiain subjectssubjects with
  Phrases that lowered it: and safetyevaluate theefficacy andsafety ofpain
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 65 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Keywords listed: 7 (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 8 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 9 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Addressing Dementia Via Agitation-Centered Evaluation NCT03226522 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 23% of active trials completed
• A Study to Assess the Efficacy and Safety of AXS-05 in Subjects With Alzheimer's Disease Agitation NCT05557409 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 44% of active trials completed
• A Study to Assess the Long-term Safety and Efficacy of AXS-05 in Subjects With Alzheimer's Disease Agitation NCT04947553 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
• Efficacy, Safety and Tolerability of AVP-786 for the Treatment of Agitation in Patients With Dementia of the Alzheimer's Type NCT02442765 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 54% of active trials completed
• Efficacy, Safety, and Tolerability of AVP-786 for the Treatment of Agitation in Participants With Dementia of the Alzheimer's Type NCT02442778 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 57% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.