Evaluation of Efficacy and Safety of Iloperidone in the Acute Treatment of Manic or Mixed Episodes Associated With Bipolar I Disorder

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 7% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 10% of the time (1,463 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-08-16. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: associatedpatientsdsmtreatingepisode
  Phrases that lowered it: the efficacyand safetyefficacy andsafety ofevaluate the
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 3.2% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 55.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 4.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 31 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: 65 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 11 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of Aripiprazole Administered With Lithium or Valproate Over 12 Weeks in the Treatment of Mania in Bipolar I Disorder NCT00665366 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 22% of active trials completed
• A Multicenter, Randomized, Double-blind, Placebo-controlled, Parallel Group-comparison Trial of Aripiprazole in the Treatment of Patients With Bipolar Disorder Experiencing a Manic or Mixed Episode NCT00606281 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 17% of active trials completed
• Clinical Trial Evaluating ITI-007 as an Adjunctive Therapy to Lithium or Valproate for the Treatment of Bipolar Depression NCT02600507 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials completed
• A Study of Lurasidone Compared With Placebo for the Treatment of Bipolar I Depression NCT04383691 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials terminated
• Efficacy and Safety of Asenapine in the Prevention of Recurrence of Mood Episodes in Participants With Bipolar 1 Disorder (P06384) NCT01396291 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.