BNT162b2 Vaccination With 2 Doses in COVID-19 Negative Volunteers and With a Single Dose in COVID-19 Positive Volunteers
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 3% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 6% of the time (122 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2023-12-02, after 2021-03-08 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-12-02. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: therapycancerthe followingchestii
Phrases that lowered it: vaccinehealthyvaccinationvolunteersparticipants -
Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Primary purpose: prevention (lowers risk) · Design
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 7.8% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 12 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- non randomized (typical: randomized)
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- prevention (typical: treatment)
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 3 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- Yes (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- government (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 64 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 7.8% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 12 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- infectious disease
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Safety and Immunogenicity of RNA-based Vaccines Against SARS-CoV-2 Variants in Healthy Participants NCT05004181 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 1% of active trials completed
- A Study to Evaluate Safety, Tolerability, and Reactogenicity of an RBD-Fc-based Vaccine to Prevent COVID-19 NCT04953078 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials completed
- Study to Describe the Safety, Tolerability, Immunogenicity, and Efficacy of RNA Vaccine Candidates Against COVID-19 in Healthy Individuals NCT04368728 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials completed
- A Study Assessing the Safety, Tolerability, Immunogenicity of COVID-19 Vaccine Candidate PRIME-2-CoV_Beta, Orf Virus Expressing SARS-CoV_2 Spike and Nucleocapsid Proteins NCT05367843 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials terminated
- KBP-201 COVID-19 Vaccine Trial in Healthy Volunteers NCT04473690 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 1% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.