Study to Evaluate Tezepelumab in Adults With Chronic Spontaneous Urticaria

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 12% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (369 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-04-13. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: therapycelltreatedpriorenrollment
  Phrases that lowered it: participantscreeningevaluateproductsdermatitis
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 11.6% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 4.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 595 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 63 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 7 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 64.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Maximum age: 80 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 43629 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study of GDC-0853 in Participants With Refractory Chronic Spontaneous Urticaria (CSU). NCT03137069 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed
• Rilzabrutinib for the Treatment of Chronic Spontaneous Urticaria in Patients Who Remain Symptomatic Despite the Use of H1 Antihistamine NCT05107115 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 13% of active trials completed
• A Study to Assess Subcutaneous Lirentelimab (AK002) in Chronic Spontaneous Urticaria NCT05528861 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials terminated
• Dose Escalation Trial Of Safety, Pharmacokinetic/Pharmacodynamic And Preliminary Clinical Activity of Briquilimab In Adult Patients With Chronic Spontaneous Urticaria (CSU) NCT06162728 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 15% of active trials completed
• Study to Compare Efficacy Safety and Immunogenicity of ADL-018 With XOLAIR (Omalizumab) in Adults With Chronic Idiopathic Urticaria NCT05774639 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.