Rivaroxaban in Type 2 Myocardial Infarctions

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 20% for any early termination, 10% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 10% of the time (273 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-01-03. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: myocardialinfarctionlifestrokeadvanced
  Phrases that lowered it: participanttrial45 yearssmokingrandomized
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 13.9% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Minimum age: 45 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 66 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 14.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 295 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2/3 (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 161508 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 13532 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• An Efficacy and Safety Study for Rivaroxaban in Patients With Acute Coronary Syndrome NCT00809965 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 70% of active trials completed
• Rivaroxaban vErsus Warfarin for Antithrombotic TheRapy in Patients With LeFt Ventricular Thrombus After Acute STEMI NCT05705089 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials completed
• A Study to Compare the Safety of Rivaroxaban Versus Acetylsalicylic Acid in Addition to Either Clopidogrel or Ticagrelor Therapy in Participants With Acute Coronary Syndrome NCT02293395 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 43% of active trials completed
• Rivaroxaban for the Prevention of Major Cardiovascular Events in Coronary or Peripheral Artery Disease NCT01776424 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 48% of active trials completed
• Direct Oral Anticoagulants for Prevention of lEft ventRIcular Thrombus After Anterior Acute Myocardial InFarction - APERITIF NCT05077683 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 66% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.